My choices for the nomination
Geek factor could play against him. Big ideas like the flat tax could go over well. The GW Bush steamroller has rendered all the other candidates virtual non-factors in the media. Otherwise, he would be considered a serious contender. Message should do well with the voters. He is the only one likely to have the money to compete with Bush. His second place showing in the Iowa straw poll makes him a serious contender and should increase his media exposure. As the conservative candidates like Kasich, Quayle, Smith, Bauer and Keyes drop their votes will swing his way. The question being, is there enough of those votes to overtake Bush
Odds of winning the nomination: 7-1
Extremely intelligent man. Almost too intelligent in the age of a dumbed down populace. Voters who vote Pro-Life as their main issue like him a lot. A former ambassador so he has political experience. In a debate he can make the other candidates look stupid. Not well known so not a serious contender.
Odds of winning the nomination: 75-1
I'll still vote for them if they win the nomination
I would consider his performance in the NH town meeting pretty good. Those who were watching might take a second look at him. Then go vote for someone else. No serious chance of winning the nomination. Of course not many actually do.
Odds of winning the nomination: 100-1
If they win the nominatiion, I'm writing someone in.
Establishment candidate and poll driven front runner. If polls didn't have him beating Al Gore, then he would be considered a second tier candidate. Marginal success as a Texas oilman. Decent sucess as principal owner of a baseball team. 6 years as governor. Questions regarding his "youthful exuberence". Not exactly a stellar candidate. He does however have the name Bush. Could be considered a way of re-voting for his dad in 1992 instead of Clinton. Has taken some positions (Kosovo, global warming) that show he is almost as poll driven as Clinton. Definite thumbs down in my opinion. Media looks to be dying to find a stake to drive in his heart. Military service, womanizing and cocaine seem to be the most popular right now. I hear that a question about an abortion is going to pop up soon. His showing in the Iowa straw poll were good, but not in line with his national poll numbers. This could be a small chink in his armor, count on the media to drive in home as much as possible since they see him as the only one who can beat Gore. His attacks on conservatives within the Republican Party will hurt him. Will it hurt him enough to give the nomination to someone else? ... We'll have to wait and see. New information regarding cocaine use will ensure that he is repeatedly asked the question again. Without evidence though, it shouldn't affect the nomination. There will be a fight between Bush and McCain for Elizabeth Dole's supporters since she has dropped out. If McCain picks them up it could offer another chink in the armor. Never good news.
Odds of winning the nomination: 3-1
Predominantly a one-issue candidate. His Pro-Life stance does not play well with the public who a little more lenient on the issue. Continually tries to claim the "Reagan Legacy" since he was an advisor for him. Doesn't really succeed. His fourth place finish in the Iowa straw poll has given him some semblance of credibility. What he does with it will spell either victory or defeat. His only exposure since Iowa has been to deny a rumor of marital infidelity. That can't be a good sign.
His odds of winning the nomination: 75-1
Adored by the media. The liberals favorite Republican. His strong support of campaign finance reform, and the tobacco bill turned off many conservatives. Is constantly portrayed as a war hero because he was offered early release from Hanoi since his father was Commander-in-Chief of the Pacific Fleet and he turned it down. It is my understanding he admitted to trading military secrets for medical attention and tried to commit suicide while in the captivity. I can understand his actions in such a horrid situation, but that makes him anything but a war hero in my book. Recieved numerous medals for suspiciously few combat missions. Could this have anything to do with his father being CINCPAC? Bottom of the barrel of candidates in my book. His skipping of the Iowa straw poll was a smart move in my book. The more he talks about campaign finance, the more people begin to look at his own fundraising practices. Any minor irregularities will seem that much more major. Picking up Dole's supporters will give him a big boost if he can do it.
Odds of winning the nomination: 25-1
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